A Driverless Future on the Horizon

Advocates for autonomous vehicles (AVs) argue that widespread adoption would boost the overall safety of motorists.  After all, machines do not fall asleep, they make fewer mistakes than humans, do not become angry, text, drink, and follow traffic laws.  

Autonomous vehicles also provide a less stressful driving experience. Commutes can be long and exhausting. A self-driving vehicle minimizes the stress, navigating through traffic while the driver sits back and relaxes. Optimal navigation will improve congestion and save on fuel costs as well.  And since the chances of an accident are lower, insurance premiums should fall. Finally, driverless cars provide the elderly and disabled additional transportation options.  

But critics have raised several concerns. Machines are not perfect; they too make mistakes, and it will take time for the technology to improve – for example, sensors often do not operate during bad weather conditions. In addition, car companies will have to protect AVs from hackers. Nearly every data system is susceptible, and AVs would be attractive targets for cybercriminals. Can you imagine the chaos if AVs were hacked?  

Furthermore, autonomous vehicles will be expensive to buy and costly to maintain.  It could take decades before the average consumer or small business could afford the technology. AVs will also dislocate millions of transportation workers. Cab drivers and truckers will no longer be needed.      

While the debate continues, car companies including Ford and Toyota have invested heavily in autonomous vehicle technologies. Countless EV startups have raised impressive capital as well. Meanwhile, Federal legislators are busy drafting legislation for a national AV regulatory framework.    

Perhaps now, as momentum builds, it’s time to ask people – consumers – what they think.  

Driverless cars – good or bad for society? 

According to a recent Pew Research Center report, a large percentage of U.S. adults think the widespread use of driverless vehicles is a bad idea for society – 44%.  That share is larger than the percentage that thinks AVs are a good idea for society – 26%. Nearly 3 in 10 Americans are uncertain about AV’s impact.  

Most Americans are also unwilling to ride in an autonomous vehicle. 63% said they would not want to ride in a driverless passenger car if they had the opportunity. A much smaller share said they would -- 37%. Women, compared to men, were the most averse to riding. Approximately 7 in 10 women would refuse the opportunity. Only 5 in 10 men would do the same. Those over 50 years of age were notably reluctant as well. About 75% reported they would not ride.  Even a majority of 30-49 year old’s say they would not ride.          

The reluctance extends to sharing the road. Over half (55%) say they’d be uncomfortable sharing the road with driverless vehicles. The youngest age group (18-29 year-olds) expressed extreme discomfort. About a third of 18-29 years-old said they’d be extremely or very uncomfortable. That’s the highest percentage among age categories.         

Negatives 

Large majorities (83%) say that autonomous vehicles would definitely or probably cause higher unemployment among people who make a living by driving others or delivering items with passenger vehicles. In addition, over 75% of believed driverless vehicles would be easily hacked and present certain risks for public safety.  Finally, a large share of the public (46%) reported that the widespread use of AVs would increase the gap between higher and lower-income Americans. And nearly 30% said driverless vehicles would increase the number of people killed or injured in traffic accidents.      

Positives

Seven in 10 Americans did agree that AVs would give people with disabilities greater freedoms. And 55% believed that if AVs became widely available, commutes would be less stressful. Finally, only small shares of the public opposed driverless technology for delivery vehicles, taxis, and public transportation.  But for 18-wheelers, Americans have significant reservations. Sixty percent are opposed to AVs for 18-wheeler trucks.   

Bottom Line

While transportation executives and Silicon Valley investors plunge deeper into their rosy predictions about a driverless future, the average American remains cautious and unimpressed. A large share of the public thinks AVs are bad for society and a significant majority would not ride in one. While many Americans do appreciate the benefits of AVs, many more cite the considerable loss of transportation employment, risks to public safety, and the potential for autonomous technology to exacerbate economic inequalities. 

Notably, debates about AVs – and EVs – often exclude public opinion. Attention centers on technological solutions and issues of scale and viability.  The industry seems to believe splashy marketing and well-timed government incentives will stimulate demand and allay public doubts.     

Hardly.  

That’s outdated thinking.  It’s reminiscent of a bygone era when Americans trusted technological developments, had confidence in business, media, and political institutions, and held experts and scientists in high regard. 

Now, the public raises an eyebrow. Technologies are scrutinized, and they are also politicized. A thick veneer of partisanship motivates many consumers and must be avoided to communicate effectively. Heavy-handed attempts by the Biden administration to advance EVs and Covid-19 vaccines demonstrate the point.    

People will not accept technology simply because they are told it is better than past practices; because they are told that it is good for them and good for the nation; because one expert after another lineup and says they should.  

What’s more, the pitch for AVs – and EVs as well – spotlights a widening gulf between an economic elite and everyone else. As Americans struggle through the pandemic – and now inflation, they are poked and prodded to embrace expensive and unproved transportation alternatives. They watch as the wealthy class adopt those alternatives and boast about the personal a’s personal and environmental virtues. 

Of course, this is not the way to persuade a wary public.    

The widespread use of AVs – and EVs – is decades away by most rational accounts. The rush to make that future a reality borders on delusional and disregards public concerns. There are many complicated ethical and moral issues that remain unresolved and contribute to the public’s caution; few of which that are broadly discussed amongst mainstream self driving car news articles.         

People are therefore skeptical and apprehensive about autonomous cars and autonomous technologies. To make widespread use of AVs a reality, business elites and politicians must change course and begin to speak to the interests and values of the average consumer.