Industry Indicators: June 20 – 26
Industry Indicators: June 20th-26th
iLevel Logistics presents intriguing data that offers a snapshot of notable industry changes and events during the week of June 20th through June 26th.
Inflation, e-commerce, truck specs, trucking employment, cybercrime, truck tonnage, port problems, manufacturing index, remote work, covid cases, spot rates, logistics % of GNP, infrastructure deal, food for thought
Inflation concerns driven primarily by health-care and used vehicles costs
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
During the initial phases of the pandemic, core personal consumption expenditures fell significantly. A year later, just the opposite is occurring. In other words, COVID-sensitive price categories that declined the most at the onset of the pandemic are now surging. According to the Fed, these changes are temporary and will recede by early 2022. Two key core measures – health care costs and prices of used vehicles illustrates the point. In sum, experts do not expect widespread or lasting inflation.
E-commerce sales as share of total retail sales – projections
Source: CNBC
The share of E-commerce sales to total retail sales is expected to rise to 23.5% by 2025 – nearly a 10% increase from 2020. And, like today, Amazon will likely dominate this retail category.
What items fleets value most when determining proper truck specs
Source: FleetOwner
Trucking employment still recovering
Source: TransportDive
Cybercrime Numbers
Source: American Trucker
ACT For-Hire Trucking Survey
Source: MH&L
In May, ACT survey of for-hire trucking service providers showed a big drop in supply-demand balance. Kenny Vieth, ACT Research analyst commented, “The pullback in the freight gauge and a tough seasonal factor on top of that were contributing factors in the sharp decline of the Supply-Demand Balance reading, which dropped 9ppts month-over-month to a 13-month low 50.6 in May. Strong freight visibility suggests this metric will rebound from here as rebalancing continues into the medium-term.”
Truck Tonnage slight decrease in May
Source: Truckinginfo
Port problems continue – and not just on the West Coast
Sources: SupplyChainBrain
COVID-19 outbreaks in China ports are aggravating existing bottlenecks. The graph below depicts the problems in key Asian ports. Source: SupplyChainBrain
Consequently, on time arrivals are way down. Source: SupplyChainDive
Demand keeps pushing up prices. Source: SupplyChainDive
Manufacturing index reaches new high in June
Source: Transport Topics
Pros and Cons of remote work
Source: TransportDive
COVID-19 daily cases and deaths – falling
Source: CNBC
Spot rates steady before July 4th holiday
Source: OverDrive
Business logistics costs represent about 7.5% of GDP
Source: FleetOwner
An infrastructure deal? Key parts in the latest agreement
Source: SupplyChainBrain
Food for Thought…..
Lotteries lure the unvaccinated
Source: Politico
To vaccinate more of its residents, Ohio announced several million-dollar lotteries for those receiving vaccines. Five vaccinated people would win $1 million each week. The strategy proved effective, raising the daily Covid-19 vaccine totals. The graph shows the post-announcement bounce.
Quit rates v. Job Openings – they are related
Source: MSN Money
It seems many people are quitting their jobs. The federal data depicted show the percentage of total quits is notably high. What are the reasons? Observers think the pandemic produced a re-evaluation of life’s priorities. Many people decided they simply wanted to pursue other ventures or perhaps seek retraining for a different profession.
However, the large number of quits may simply reflect the fact that businesses across the nation are posting opening at extraordinary levels – offering increased wages and benefits. Thus, people are not quitting because of the pandemic or personal epiphanies about life’s direction. Rather they are quitting because of the unprecedented number of new and attractive opportunities now exist – lots and lots of business are hiring.
The blue dotted line (below) represents the point where job postings equal job quits – a ideal equilibrium, a rough line of expectation in the search market. For a given job opening rate (2), we expect a specific quite rate (1.5) – this is what past data tells us. Look at the pattern of data from December 2020 to February 2020. Most months are clustered around that blue dotted line. The current quit rate (2.8) is in line with what we expect based on the volume of job opening (6.2).
