Industry Indicators: Week Feb 21 - 27

Galloping toward herd immunity

In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece, Dr. Marty Makary a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Pulbic Health noted a crucial fact that nearly every expert and news media outlet ignored:  Over the past 6 weeks, the number of COVID-19 cases are down 77%.  Why?  Prior infections are far more common than reported –  or can be measured by current testing practices.  As more people are infected, there becomes fewer and fewer left to be infected.  Thus, natural immunity – as well as the vaccine rollout – is driving down the number of cases.  On the current trajectory, Dr. Markary expects COVID-19 to be mostly gone by April.

Drawing a notably darker picture, Dr Anthony Fauci observed that it’s possible Americans will still be wearing masks in 2022.  Similarly, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evalautioin warned that the world may never reach herd immunity.   

iLEVEL Road Scholar prefers the optimism of Dr. Makary and his sophisticated analysis of the CDC data. Let’s cheer those numbers!  After all, as Makary concluded, “If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill.”  

Source: CDC

Vaccine hesitancy across industries – transportation workers more hesitant than others

In a recent New Morning Consult poll, 56% of employees said they’d get a COVID-19 vaccine.  However, the range around that average is striking.  Only 47% of workers in the food and beverage industry would receive a vaccine while nearly 80% in higher education agreed to vaccinate. 

Notice the percentage of transportation workers willing to get vaccinated.  A mere 50%.  Significant lobbying efforts by the transportation industry continue to press legislatures across the nation to move workers up the list for immediate vaccination.  After all, transportation is front-line, essential work.  

But the number that are hesitant are problematic and initiate transportation companies to consider mandating or strongly encouraging employees to vaccinate.  When it’s their turn, iLEVEL Road Scholar believes transportation workers will step up and welcome the shot.  

Less-than-Truck Load on a roll

LTL carriers benefited from the 2020 Ecommerce boom.   This chart shows the top 10 LTL carriers based on 2020 sales.  Predictably, the big names are on top – with FedEx number 1 by some margin. The figures are striking – in billions.   

A recent report also suggests the trend will continue.  January LTL performance measures are up considerably from 2020.  Moreover,  general rate increases are expected in March from 5% to 6%  – indicative of tightening LTL capacity.