The Numbers Don't Lie: Graphs that Explain Current Economic Trends

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Tesla shocks market, again!

Tesla continues to reduce prices. The base Model Y now costs $46,990, which is $759 less than the average new car price. The base Model 3 is even cheaper, priced at $7,800 less than the average new car.

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Elon sparks lithium worries

Elon Musk reminded investors this week of the key challenge facing the electric vehicle industry – securing much-needed lithium for EV batteries. 

“Like, instead of making a picture-sharing app, please refine lithium. Mining and refining, heavy industry, come on.” 

Judging from the chart, Musk’s remarks are on point.   

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Bankruptcy: US Bank's specialty

There have been over 3,500 bank failures. Most of the failures occurred during three distinct periods: The Great Depression, the banking crisis of the 1980s and 90s, and the Great Recession. However, the Silicon Valley Bank failure is the second-largest in history, controlling more than $175 billion in deposits.

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Jobless now, recession later

Historical data shows that recessions (red columns) are often preceded by a cyclical low in unemployment (black). Presently, we are near a 50-year low in unemployment.

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Taxing times for Americans

The top 3 tax frustrations for Americans are corporations not paying their fair share, the wealthy not paying their fair share, and the tax system being too complex.

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Gun violence: no common definition

Maddeningly, there is no common definition of mass shootings. If the organizations that track shootings cannot agree upon a proper definition, then how can we expect elected officials to find common ground on a legislative response to these senseless tragedies? Mother Jones, for example, defines mass shootings as 3 or more people killed in public places, and excludes crimes of armed robbery, gang violence, or domestic violence. Mother Jones reported 6 mass shootings in 2021. The Gun Violence Archive definition is based only on the numeric value of 4 or more people shot or killed – not including the shooter. The Gun Violence Archive reported 693 mass shootings in 2021. By the way, the FBI defines a mass shooting as an event in which one or more individuals are actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill in populated areas. The FBI criteria also include mass killing as 3 or more killed in a single event. By this definition, 61 such events occurred in 2021.

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Party pooped on candidates

Neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden received strong party support from party members to run for president. However, Joe Biden’s support appears especially weak – only 47% of Democrats want him to run for president in 2024.

When people are asked what feelings come to mind when thinking about a Trump-Biden rematch, exhaustion tops the list. Noticeably, exhaustion is number one for Democrats, while hope ranks first for Republicans.

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Costs of living rise

Hopefully, these extraordinary price increases will slow down or even level off in the future. The past 20 years have witnessed unparalleled increases in essential expenditure categories - hospital services, college tuition, childcare, food, and housing.

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Boxed in: Q1 dip

U.S. box shipment demand is down nearly 13% for the first quarter of 2023. The decline mirrors significant decreases during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-09. Box demand is, in fact, an excellent economic indicator and among the best barometers of goods demand. Noticeably, there was strong demand during the height of the pandemic as unprecedented government stimulus motivated spending.

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Arms and the budget

Without question, the U.S. is first in military spending. In 2022, U.S. military spending was larger than the next 10 nations combined.

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Shipping sentiment sinks

FreightWaves Freight Sentiment Indexes, which survey carriers, brokers, and shippers about near and longer-term profitability, workforce, and business investment sentiment, show an uptick among brokers and shippers. But carriers, for the first time since FreightWaves tracked sentiment, are usually pessimistic as the carrier index reaches into negative territory.

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Taxing budget cuts

On Tax Day 2022, the Treasury Department responded to complaints about IRS inefficiencies and lack of productivity, saying it is “a byproduct of chronic underfunding that has starved the IRS of the tools it needs to serve the American people.” So, as part of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, nearly $80 billion was allocated to the IRS to reverse years of ‘neglect’ and understaffing.

Nevertheless, it’s not clear that funding is, in fact, the problem. Since 1992, funding ranged between approximately $12 billion and $15 billion in constant 2021 dollars. The 2021 allocation of $13.7 billion is nearly the same as the 30-year average level.

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Truck tonnage tanks

In March, the truck tonnage index dropped 5.4%, the largest monthly decrease since April 2020 - the first month of the pandemic.

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