Reflecting on the Transition to Electric Vehicles and Toyota's Perspective

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“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”

— Mark Twain

It's remarkable that the extraordinary changes required to transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles have not provoked a stronger and more reliable opposition. After all, the conversion requires significant government subsidies, an elaborate charging infrastructure, new mines for raw materials, enhanced refining of those materials, the construction of battery manufacturing plants, and adaptation of existing supply chains. It will displace workers, devastate entire industries, and exacerbate social and economic inequalities. 

Where are the voices of dissent? 

Akio Toyoda   

Last December, Toyota’s president and CEO Akio Toyoda expressed doubts about the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) – being the first and only auto industry leader to do so. He claimed that there was a "silent majority" in the auto industry that questioned EVs as the primary alternative to internal combustion engines, but they did not speak out due to fear of criticism and exclusion. The silence inspired electrification advocates who took control of the transportation agenda. 

Pushing back, Toyoda asserted that EVs "are not the only way to achieve the world's carbon neutrality goals." Instead, he favored hybrids and plug-in hybrids as preferable alternatives, citing their affordability and ability to alleviate range anxiety.

About a month later, Toyoda stepped down as president and CEO and handed over the reins to the automaker’s top branding officer, Koji Sato.  By April, CEO Sato announced a new electrification strategy, including 10 new EVs by 2026.     

The message was clear: electrification is the future. Sato represented that future, while Toyoda did not.

Toyota Memo           

Before dismissing Akio Toyoda's perspective, let's examine a memo that Toyota sent to auto dealers explaining the challenges of full electrification.

• Most public chargers take 4-10 hours to charge EVs up to 80%.

• To meet federal zero-emissions sales targets, 2 million public chargers will be needed by 2030. This translates to 400 new chargers per day. The U.S. is far from reaching this goal.

• Over 300 new lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite mines will be required to meet the anticipated battery demands by 2035. Developing these mines will take decades.

• "The number of raw materials in one long-range battery electric vehicle could instead be used to make 6 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles or 90 hybrid electric vehicles."

• "The overall carbon reduction achieved by those 90 hybrids over their lifetimes is 37 times greater than that of a single battery electric vehicle."

These facts are rarely discussed in the transportation media and do not align with progressive political goals, nor do they align with the ambitious zero-emissions policies of the Biden administration.

But does that mean we should ignore them? Was Toyoda wrong in advocating for an incrementalist approach to electrification?

Mark Twain was right. There are times when it is wise to pause and reflect. Surely, there are multiple paths to achieve a zero-emissions future.

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