Traffic fatalities are on the rise - is it a crisis?
On a somber note, Secretary Buttigieg announced his National Roadway Safety Strategy that identifies ways to improve highway safety and sets a new federal goal of zero fatalities. According to Buttigieg, zero is the only acceptable number of roadway deaths.
Though unrealistic, the goal sets a proper tone that will drive subsequent policies.
“This is a crisis. More than 20,000 people died on U.S. roads in the first six months of 2021, leaving countless loved ones behind. We cannot and should not accept these fatalities as simply a part of everyday life in America.”
On a somber note, Secretary Buttigieg announced his National Roadway Safety Strategy that identifies ways to improve highway safety and sets a new federal goal of zero fatalities. According to Buttigieg, zero is the only acceptable number of roadway deaths. Though unrealistic, the goal sets a proper tone that will drive subsequent policies.
Buttigieg also pledged financial support. He cited the billions of dollars from President Biden’s infrastructure law for states and localities to design safer roads, lower speed limits, build bus and bike lanes, and improve street lighting. He pressed for the adoption of speeding cameras and referred to the safety benefits of alternative transportation - such as rail and public transit.
He called for widespread cooperation among levels of government, industries, advocates, engineers, and communities across the nation to work “together toward the day when family members no longer have to say goodbye to loved ones because of a traffic crash.”
Undoubtedly, everyone agrees that traffic fatalities are devastating, and governments should take the necessary steps to prevent them. Every death is a tragedy, and one is too many.
Still, before developing policies and before raising hopes and expectations, it seems prudent to test Buttigieg’s claim: Is this a crisis?
The data
After Buttigieg’s announcement, news outlets echoed his remarks and cited the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) report that documents a recent spike in road fatalities – see chart below. A press release from Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) seemed to agree with Buttigieg’s interpretation. The headline: “New Report Reveals Staggering Increase in Traffic Fatalities on U.S. Roadway in First 9 Months of 2021.”
The NHTSA report noted that for the first 9 months of last year, 31,720 people died in motor vehicle accidents. This represents a 12.0% increase compared to the same period in 2020. In addition, 2021 fatalities are the highest number since 2006, and the highest percent increase in the recorded history of NHTSA data.
However, absent from various press accounts and the MADD release was an examination of the data. Reporters merely repeated the NHTSA numbers and played up the increase in total fatalities. For example, this was the Associated Press headline, “US road deaths rise at a record pace as risky driving persists”. Later, in another story, the AP cited the surge in traffic fatalities as the principal reason for new safety regulations for high-beam headlights.
Remarkably, no mention of the sharp decline in driving caused by pandemic lockdowns in 2020. Nor how the rebound in driving miles last year may have impacted the statistics.
Drivers logged substantially more vehicle miles in 2021 than in 2020. This means greater traffic volumes in 2021, which raises the chances of accidents and fatalities – compared to 2020.
The NHTSA report did provide stats on vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In the first 9 months of 2021, VMT increased by 244 billion miles, or approximately a 12% increase compared to the first 9 months of 2020. This increase matches the increase in fatalities.
VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled)
To properly compare fatalities across periods, we can use VMT to create a standard measure of traffic fatality rates -- dividing the number of traffic fatalities by vehicle miles traveled.
It turns out the traffic fatality rate for the first 9 months in 2021 was about the same as in the first 9 months of 2020 – 1.36 fatalities per 100 million VMT compared to 1.35 fatalities per 100 million VMT. NHTSA referred to this difference as marginal.
Does this constitute a crisis? The fact that the traffic fatality rate remained about the same is not helpful from Buttigieg’s standpoint. By focusing on the total numbers of fatalities rather than fatality rates, and by focusing on changes between 2020 and 2021, Buttigieg misrepresents roadway safety.
To push the point, a total of 83,471 Californians have died from covid-19. In Mississippi, that number is 11,772. A difference of nearly 72,000. What is the implication? A covid crisis in California? Of course not. Fortunately, news organizations and public health officials standardize covid deaths by the size of a state’s population. Doing so shows that deaths per 100,000 people are substantially lower in California at 211 than in Mississippi at 396.
The real story
Plotting traffic fatality rates since 1975 uncovers the real story. The “staggering” increases in total fatalities in 2021 take on a different meaning after considering the much larger and sustained reductions in traffic fatality rates since the 1970s. The 2021 fatality rate is about a third of the rates in the late 1970s and 1980s. And it is considerably smaller than rates in the 1990s and early 2000s.
The chart reflects extraordinary success in roadway safety.
It’s much too early to conclude the uptick in 2020 signifies a trend. The number of fatalities and fatality rates have fluctuated in the past – increasing in 2016 for example but dropping thereafter. Moreover, NHTSA observed that “the fatality rates in the second and third quarters of 2021 declined compared to 2020.” If that pattern continues, the 2022 fatality rate may well drop to 2019 levels.
The Bottom Line
We can appreciate Transportation Secretary Buttigieg’s framing of the NHTSA numbers. After all, he is a politician pushing an agenda. Exaggeration is part of the job. For similar reasons, we can set aside MADD’s provocative headline.
But the press coverage of traffic deaths clearly ignored the most important explanation for the increase – vehicle miles traveled. The often-cited – but apparently never read – NHTSA report used traffic fatality rates to evaluate changes in the number of fatalities. Yet fatality rates were not mentioned by the news media, by Pete Buttigieg, or by anyone else.
The rise in fatalities in 2020 and 2021 is troubling. But it’s not a crisis. There is no evidence that it will continue. The pandemic years are outliers in nearly every respect. Buttigieg should not use them as a basis for prediction Nor should he use them to develop transportation policy.
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