Looking at first week of November 2022

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The Early Days of Elon Musk’s Twitter Reign

Four days after Elon Musk took over Twitter, look what happened to Twitter followers.  Republican members of Congress gained followers while Democrats lost them. This is notable, considering that historically there seem to have been many more Liberal followers on Twitter than those that identified as Conservatives. 

It appears Musk’s acquisition may be changing the pattern.  

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American savings accounts are drying up

Unfortunately, this looks like trouble. According to Bloomberg and Lombard Odier, by October 2022 credit card loans have reached $926.2 billion among Americans and the personal savings rate has plummeted to 3.1%. During the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, personal savings reached 33.8% in April 2020.

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U.S. Interest Rates are painfully high… but still historically low

This graph compares today’s interest rates to previous years. The steep and rapid climb from 2020 is unprecedented – and painful – but the 3.8% rate is comparatively low.   

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Social Media seems to breed misinformation

No, the dominant news source is not CBS’s Walter Cronkite. Half of Americans get their news regularly from social media. 

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Senate control is hanging in the balance

According to 538, the Senate is now a toss-up – and the trend favors Republicans.  

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Key indicators for Presidential Party U.S. Representative Seats

All the key indicators for midterm elections are currently pointing toward Democrat losses – per Gallup.

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Middle-class wealth was on the rise… until it wasn’t

Middle-class wealth rose dramatically during the pandemic. Much of the increase was due to home equity and retirement funds growing at unprecedented rates. Now, however, middle-class real wealth is on the decline – taking the biggest hit to middle-class wealth in a generation. 

Importantly, the middle class represents about half of the consumption expenditures in the United States and its members are more likely to vote than the working or lower classes.

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Shipping rates between Shanghai and LA have plummeted

This figure demonstrates clearly that shipping rates for a 40-ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles have slipped below the long-term average (going back to 2011, full series). This is a remarkable turnaround in the trajectory.  

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Lithium imports are on the rise

Lithium batteries power our everyday devices – cell phones, laptops, EV, and solar power storage.  So, the obvious question is where will we find more lithium? 

It looks like, for now, imports.  

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United States oil exports are soaring

Amid rising gas and diesel prices, the US exported a record amount of crude oil. Shipments reached 11.4 million barrels a day, even though domestic fuel inventories are at historical lows. 

The imbalance reflects, in part, the impact of the Jones Act, which increases the cost of shipping fuel to US ports – from say Gulf Coast refineries to the East Coast. Shippers can make more money sending fuel overseas than to domestic markets.   

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