Mid-November update: graphs of the week
Savings accounts are plummeting
US household savings continues to fall. Economists think the “cash cushion” from various pandemic relief measures will disappear entirely by the second half of 2023. The decline, combined with inflation, sets up a hard landing in late 2023.
Credit card balances are growing
As savings goes down, credit card balances increase.
Electricity prices are sky-rocketing
Adding to consumer stress, prices for electricity continue to climb. The year-to-date rise is clocking in at 14%.
Minority vs. Majority - Americans seem to be far off the mark
No, we are not very good at estimating the size of groups. What percentage of the population is Muslim, for example, or vegan? YouGov asked people to estimate group sizes and the prevalence of several societal trends. The results indicate that we tend to overestimate the size of most groups. But we also underestimate some behaviors as well.
A few noteworthy estimations: The actual size of the transgender population is 1%. The public thinks it’s 21%. The true population of gays and lesbians is 3%. The public estimates 30%. Members of unions, 4%; public estimation 36%. Consider the underestimations regarding people that have flown in planes, own houses, and read a book.
Midterms voting turnout good, but not great
Voter turnout is high in 2022. Yet early estimates fall short of the 2018 record.
GDP is favoring Asia-Pacific
The balance of power is shifting toward the East – the global share of purchasing power (GDP) is expected to decline for US plus Canada and rise for Asia-pacific.
The U.S. provides the bulk of Ukrainian military aid
Ever wonder where Ukraine receives military aid? Does Europe come to mind?
The UK is the largest provider in Europe – by far. The US, however, overwhelms every other nation.
Life expectancy grows while fertility rates shrink
Global life expectancy soared from 34 years in 1913 to 72 years in 2022. As shown, it’s expected to continue along that trajectory. At the same time, fertility rates dropped in every country in the world. And that rate is expected to drop still more.
In 1948, there were roughly 7 times more children under 15 than people 65 years of age or older. By 2050, it’s projected these groups will be approximately the same size.
These shifts portend incredible health, social, economic, and political challenges in the coming decades. They will also provide tremendous business opportunities.
College degree majors matter, despite passion
The most regretted and least regretted college majors.
Inflation rate slightly cools
For the fourth consecutive month, the inflation rate moved lower in October.
Correlation doesn’t equal causation
When someone confuses correlation with causation, show them this graph. In short, just because two variables vary together does not mean one causes the other.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve lowest since the 80s
The strategic petroleum reserves keep falling – 62 consecutive weekly declines. It’s now at the lowest level since 1984. A 34% decline this year marks the largest drop on record.
Americans much more receptive to trucking post-pandemic
The results of a national poll clearly demonstrate a positive image of the trucking industry. Positive ratings improved considerably during the pandemic.
Supply chain issues begin to calm
Small business owners reported that supply-chain disruptions have begun to ease. In October, more reported moderate to only mild impact of supply-chain problems on their businesses.
Consumer sentiment low, for record-breaking amount of time
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is experiencing an unprecedented run of negativity. It’s been 7 straight months below 60. The prior record was 4 months during the 1980 recession.
Manifest 2024 served as a reminder of the immense potential that lies ahead in the realm of supply chain technology.