October’s Industry Indicators: uneven recovery, driver demographics, & alternative fuel

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An uneven recovery

Local trucking jobs fully recovered from the pandemic and quickly surpassed the January 2020 baseline. However, it took much longer for long-haul jobs to recover. Local jobs grew nearly 10% from January 2020 through May 2022. Over the same period, long-haul jobs grew by only 4.3%. 

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Driver demographics

In 2021, truck driver demographics still reflect the overwhelming presence of white men. However, compared to 2020, the percentage of Latino, Black, Asian, and women drivers has all increased.

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Alternative fuel

Lately, there has been a lot of press about the use of alternative fuels. However, in practice, alternative fuel usage is very low. Only 7% of respondents used some form of alternative fuel in 2021.  Compressed natural gas has the highest adoption rate – 5.9% of respondents had at least one truck running it.  In addition, while battery-electric usage stands at 3.9%, only 0.048% of all trucks were battery-electric. 

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Running out of diesel

As of October 20, the US is running low on diesel fuel. Expect higher prices in the weeks ahead. 

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Switching v. staying

Job switching appears to be lucrative – at least compared to job staying. The notable gap illustrated in this graph between switchers and stayers demonstrates the high demand for labor. If salary growth is your objective, no better time than now to switch.

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Second jobs

One way people keep up with inflation is to take a second job. More employees are in fact working second jobs. Multiple job holders – primary and secondary jobs – reached their highest levels since 2000.

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 Employment dynamics

Job openings are still remarkably high, layoffs low, and employees are still quitting – perhaps to seek even better jobs (job switchers). 

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Bezos

A massive empire indeed – impressive diversification as well.

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EV battery manufacturers

China dominates the top EV battery manufacturers in 2022.  In fact, the top 10 producers are all Asian suppliers. Chinese companies comprise 56% of the EV battery market, followed by Korean companies (26%), and Japanese (10%).  The leading Chinese firm, CATL, expanded its market share in 2022 to 34%, up from 32% in 2021.

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East coast and Texas ports gain

It’s slow, but it’s sure. East coast and Texas ports are gaining on the Pacific. Past and present gridlock in the West have forced retailers to rewire their shipping routes – some executives think these changes may be permanent. 

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Visibility

The major pain point when delivering on time; real-time order visibility tracking – over a third of retailers identified this as the major concern.

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Getting back to pre-pandemic levels

TSA screening at U.S. airports surged during Labor Day weekend, marking the first holiday since the pandemic began that was busier than in 2019.

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Container Imports

U.S. container import volumes have begun to fall. As the economy slows, retailers reduce purchases, and inflation soars – the costs simply accumulate – import volumes fall. September dropped 11% - inching closer to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. 

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Driver turnover

At private fleets, driver turnover jumped to 23% in 2022. A record increase. The average turnover for the past decade is approximately 14%. In 2021 it was 16%.

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Elections

The fight for the Senate majority is increasingly close – toss-up territory.

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