The Next Step: Speed Limiters

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““A lot of people are getting killed out on the highways.” ”

— Jack Van Steenburg, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration chief safety officer

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It was the next step and an inevitable one.  Following Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s National Roadway Safety Strategy, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) announced that it was reviving a proposal to mandate speed limiters on commercial motor vehicles. 

The rule proposes that interstate commercial vehicles weighing more than 26,001 pounds would be speed limited.  A speed limit has not been determined, but prior plans suggested 60, 65, or 68 miles per hour. 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Report

Secretary Buttigieg responded to the release of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) February report that revealed a spike in 2021 roadway fatalities.  He characterized the increase as a crisis and promptly set a new federal goal of zero deaths. Buttigieg then pledged financial support, citing the billions of dollars from President Biden’s infrastructure law for states and localities to design safer roads and lower speed limits.        

The NHTSA stressed speed as a significant factor in fatal crashes and speed management as the primary tool to address serious roadway injuries and fatalities.  In fact, the NHTSA listed speed limiters on its Most Wanted list in 2021 and 2022.    

Increasing fatalities require speed limiters – look at the numbers

Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) officials also characterized the spike in fatalities as a crisis and featured NHTSA statistics to push safety policies including vehicle speed limiters. 

·      In 2021, 42,915 people died in motor vehicle crashes – a 10.5% increase from 2020. 

·      In 2021, fatalities in crashes involving a least one large truck were up 13%.

·      In 2021, 831 trucker drivers and driver passengers died in accidents – 43% were not wearing seatbelts. 

Let’s look at the numbers

In February 2022, the NHTSA estimated 31,720 roadway fatalities for the first 9 months of 2021.  That is a whopping 12.0% increase over projections for the first 9 months of 2020 – the highest 9-month percentage increase in the history of NHTSA data. 

The 9-month comparison made headlines and led to the announcement of Buttigieg’s National Roadway Safety Strategy.  However, NHTSA offered other comparisons. 

In 2015, for example, annual fatalities increased by 8.4% compared to 2014.  In 2016, fatalities surged again by 6.5%.  Yet a year later, in 2017, fatalities declined, and then declined once more in 2018 and 2019. 

In other words, there is variation.

Buttigieg's statements assume 2021 marks a trend.  But the historical data show nothing of the sort.  Marked increases in fatalities one year are as likely to be followed by declines as increases in the next.   

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A standard metric to assess risk – traffic fatality rates

Transport risk can be computed by reference to the distance people travel – vehicle miles traveled (VMT).  To compare fatalities over time, the number of traffic fatalities is divided by VMT.  The result is a standard measure called traffic fatality rates.   

The NHTSA investigation does provide VMT and traffic fatality rates.  However, they are typically ignored in media reports.   The numbers nevertheless are illuminating.   

For instance, after an extraordinary drop in 2020, 2021 VMT came roaring back nearly reaching pre-pandemic levels.  The roadways have never experienced such a sharp decline and rise in VMT.  The intense resurgence of course contributes to a variety of driving-related problems including crashes and fatalities. 

Thus, the unusual increase in 2021 fatalities can be explained in part by the dramatic recovery in VMT – an 11.2% increase compared to 2020 – about 325.2 billion additional miles traveled. 

Moreover, employing fatalities rates — rather than counts, 2021 looks very much the same as 2020.  In fact, fatality rates per 100 million VMT is a tick less in 2021 (1.33) compared to 2020 (1.34). 

What stands out is the substantial upturn in fatality rates in 2020 compared to 2019.  Even though VMT reduced sharply in 2020, fatality rates nevertheless increased – a 20.7% increase over 2019.

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2020 fatality increase

The unusual increase in fatalities in 2020 – even as VMT declined sharply, is the most important finding in the NHTSA data.  However, the specific causes of the increase are a mystery.    

Looking at NHTSA quarterly data, it’s apparent that the pandemic created a large spike in the fatality rate in the second quarter of 2020 (this is when widespread lockdowns happened), which continued into the 3rd and 4th quarters.  Fewer miles traveled do not mean fewer fatalities – at least not during a worldwide pandemic. 

Researchers contend that COVID-19 marked “a sea change in psychology” which includes widespread feelings of isolation, loneliness, impulsivity, and depression.  Some believe these changes contributed to the uptick in fatalities – drivers that were more likely to speed, fail to use seat belts, drink, and use drugs.     

The 2020 fatality spike matches other related pandemic trends including soaring alcohol sales, drug overdoses, and homicides.     

Bottom Line

Certainly, the last couple of years has been terrible for road safety. Too many people died. Federal and state governments need to do a better job of prioritizing safety on the roadways. 

However, an effective regulatory response must first grapple with the pandemic and its impact on reckless driving. We need to know more about the causes behind the 2020 and 2021 spikes before making broad policy declarations and retooling old proposals. Are speed limiters an appropriate reaction to roadway fatalities that can be attributed to the unique social and psychological effects of the pandemic? 

In short, policymakers must ask whether the pandemic years are mere outliers or the beginning of a genuine trend.  At this point, the data do not yield definitive answers.  It’s much too early.  In the past, years of substantial increases in fatalities were followed by decreases.   

Given the Biden Administration’s success on infrastructure, it seems prudent to focus on roadway design and maintenance.  Fatal crashes occur disproportionally – both by population and vehicle travel – on rural roads, not interstates.  Safer roads, and the environments around the roadway systems, can be targeted immediately without imposing burdensome regulations on drivers and fleets.      

Finally, transportation media should adopt fatality rates as a measure of risk and roadway safety.  Motivated politicians will of course continue to use simple counts to advance an agenda.  But the press must hold them accountable.  Fatality rates pose challenging questions and force officials to pause, examine the thorny causes behind pandemic fatalities, and craft policies that better fit the realities of our roadways.  

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