Joe Biden’s Climate Approach: is it working?

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Immediately after Joe Biden’s electoral victory in 2020, climate change policies were elevated to the very top of the nation’s agenda. The news media followed the lead, casting Biden’s climate approach in a favorable light while drawing connections between the environment and a host of other issues. 

For example, the passage of the infrastructure bill was successful in part because advocates linked investments in transportation to climate change. Spending on the nation’s highways and ports was not solely an economic issue. Rather, infrastructure included – and indeed emphasized climate and environmental justice, strengthening resilience to extreme weather conditions, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, building a clean power grid, and expanding access to clean water.    

The fact that DOT grants now tie infrastructure spending to equity, privilege, sustainability, and environmental and racial justice speaks to the extraordinary transformation fashioned by the President’s climate change policies.  

Delays and failures

However, revolutionizing the nation’s energy policies and transportation habits is no easy task. 

In principle, most people agree with environmental and climate justice. But as inflation soars, and the dark clouds of recession loom, enthusiasm for climate policies fades.     

Economic troubles arouse a pragmatism that clashes with the public spirit required for real change. Under normal circumstances, it’s politically risky to ask people to sacrifice for an uncertain climate future. It is self-destructive during an economic downturn.         

There is a strong possibility that Democrats will lose control of Congress in November. And a contributing factor will be Biden’s climate change policies. He pushed too far too fast and rejected the conventional, incremental path.     

Besides the infrastructure bill and a handful of executive actions, most of the president’s climate proposals have failed or been overturned in court.   

And now, more than a year into Joe Biden’s presidency, the public is evenly divided over the administration’s approach to climate change.  According to a recent Pew Center Survey, 47% of U.S. adults say the President’s climate policies are taking the country in the wrong direction while 49% say the policies are taking the country in the right direction.

Independents and frustrated Democrats

Predictably, President Biden’s climate approach generates strong partisan responses. However, a majority of Independents say Biden’s climate policies are taking the country in the wrong direction. This should be a red flag for Democrats – most independents now side with Republicans.     

Also, there is a developing fissure among Democrats. A large share of Democrats thinks Biden’s climate policies are on the right track (79%).  But 61% of this group believe Biden should be doing more for the climate. They are frustrated. Biden had promised them so much more.     

In short, support from Independents is slumping and the Democratic base is notably disappointed.

Does climate change hurt the economy?    

When asked whether stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost, a slight majority say yes (52%).  But that percentage is dropping – 65% in 2019, 56% in 2021.   

Instead, a growing percentage of Americans say environmental laws and regulations are costing too many jobs and hurting the economy.  Over the last 2 years, that percentage has increased by 12% – increasing among Republicans (+20) and Democrats (+7).    

Phasing out gasoline cars?

The Biden administration has proposed to make half of the U.S. auto fleet electric by 2030. Likewise, California unveiled a program that bans all new gas-fueled cars by 2035. And recently, the European Union proposed a similar ban on new gas cars and trucks by 2035. Notable car makers and transportation companies followed the example and promptly announced their own EV plans.  

Nevertheless, the public remains steadfast. Opposition to phasing out gasoline cars now stands at 55%, increasing 4 points since April 2021. While Democrats and Republicans are divided, the opposition has nevertheless increased among both groups – about a third of Democrats now oppose phasing out gas cars and trucks.      

Would you consider an electric vehicle? 

Most Americans do not plan on purchasing an EV. When asked how likely they would consider one, only 15% said very likely. Twenty-four percent said it was very unlikely and another 13% said they would not purchase one. Thus, the share of adults not interested in an EV remains notably larger (37%) than those interested (15%). And, that share has stayed about the same since Pew Center last asked the question in April 2021.[i]  

[i] Those most likely to consider an EV include younger people (18 to 29-year-olds), urban dwellers, Democrats, and those who already own a hybrid or EV. 

It's the economy!

While climate change persists as an important concern for most Americans, in politics it is the economic climate that usually prevails. Rising energy and food costs, war, political polarization, and an approaching recession focus people on the here and now. 

Yes, EVs, AVs, and the widespread application of renewable fuels and programs to reduce carbon pollution are the future.  But today, the public is deeply concerned about their pocketbooks. People will vote for their economic interests. It was Bill Clinton that made this clear in 1992 - remember, “it’s the economy, stupid”.    

If Democrats lose control of Congress, Biden will be unable to build on past climate victories. For this reason, Democrats would do well to take Clinton’s advice. 

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